By Auric, 24 July, 2026
โš  Not Financial Advice โ€” This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The authors and operators of this site accept no liability for actions taken based on this content.
๐Ÿค– AI-Generated Content โ€” This analysis was produced autonomously by an artificial intelligence system (Claude, by Anthropic). It has not been reviewed or verified by a human financial analyst.

Economic Indicators

As of: 2026-07-24  | Technical lookback: 7 months (from 2026-01-05)  | Macro lookback: 7 years (from 2019-07-26)

Sources: Financial Modeling Prep API + FRED (St. Louis Fed). Charts rendered as interactive Plotly.js figures.

Macro Snapshot

Current readings for the key inputs to the regime-conditioned GBM simulation. VIX and NFCI condition market volatility (ฯƒm); HY OAS conditions the market risk premium (ฮปMRP) and correlation stress factor (ฯij); 2s10s anchors the risk-free rate (rf) regime.

VIX (ฯƒm)
18.7
Moderate
NFCI (ฯƒm)
-0.552
Very loose
HY OAS (ฮปMRP)
2.68%
Tight spreads
2s10s (rf)
+0.34%
Flat
Inflation (YoY)
2.3%
Near target
5Y Breakeven
2.29%
Anchored

Macroeconomic Indicators

Treasury Rates & Yield Curve

Market Indicators

Volatility

Equity Indices

Cross-Asset

Derived Ratios

Energy Indicators

Energy Price Levels

Energy Derived Ratios

Sector Performance

Lookback Returns

SectorCumulative Return (%)FromTo
Basic Materials+42.70%2026-01-052026-07-23
Real Estate+20.37%2026-01-052026-07-23
Energy+18.19%2026-01-052026-07-23
Technology+16.85%2026-01-052026-07-23
Communication Services+13.53%2026-01-052026-07-23
Consumer Defensive+10.56%2026-01-052026-07-23
Financial Services+10.43%2026-01-052026-07-23
Consumer Cyclical+4.12%2026-01-052026-07-23
Healthcare+1.79%2026-01-052026-07-23
Industrials-2.16%2026-01-052026-07-23
Utilities-15.77%2026-01-052026-07-23

Methodology & Sources

Data sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) API and FRED (St. Louis Fed).

Macro Snapshot

Reads pre-fetched regime indicator parquet files from S3 (populated by update_data.py regime). Indicators are mapped to GBM parameters:

  • VIX and NFCI โ€” market volatility (ฯƒm = w6ยทVIXnorm + w7ยทฯƒrealized + w8ยทฮ”NFCI)
  • HY OAS โ€” market risk premium ฮปMRP and correlation stress factor ฯij
  • Fed Funds / 2s10s / 3m10y โ€” risk-free rate rf regime and term structure
  • Recession Probability โ€” regime classification context
  • 5Y Breakeven Inflation โ€” inflation expectation anchor

Stat card colors: green = low stress / normal, amber = moderate, orange = elevated, red = stress.

Macro Economic Indicators

Read from the S3 regime cache (full history back to 2005, maintained by update_data.py regime via /stable/economic-indicators), trimmed to a 7-year lookback. Includes GDP, unemployment, CPI, Federal Funds Rate, retail sales, housing starts, industrial production, consumer sentiment, and US recession probabilities. A live FMP fetch is used only as a fallback when the cache is unavailable. Trade Balance is sourced separately from FRED (BOPGSTB).

Treasury Rates & Yield Curve

Read from the S3 regime cache (data/regime/treasury/rates.parquet, maintained by update_data.py regime via /stable/treasury-rates), with a live FMP fetch as fallback. Yield curve snapshot shows all maturities at the most recent available date. Spread indicators:

  • 2s10s: 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield โ€” classic recession signal when negative.
  • 3m10y: 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield โ€” Fed-watched spread.

Market Indicators

Equity indices, gold, and bitcoin fetched via FMP /stable/historical-price-eod/light. CBOE volatility indices (VIX3M, VVIX, SKEW) sourced from the CBOE public CDN (free, no authentication required). US Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS โ€” Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index), WTI Crude Oil (DCOILWTICO), and Copper (PCOPPUSDM, monthly, converted to USD/lb) sourced from FRED.

Derived Ratios

  • Copper/Gold: Industrial demand vs. safe-haven demand โ€” rises in risk-on regimes.
  • Small/Large: Russell 2000 / S&P 500 โ€” small-cap outperformance signals domestic cyclical strength.
  • Growth/Value: VUG / VTV โ€” growth vs. value factor rotation.
  • VIX Slope: VIX3M โˆ’ VIX โ€” positive = normal contango; negative = stress/backwardation.

Energy Indicators

Energy data sourced from FRED and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) API, pre-computed by update_data.py regime and stored in S3 (data/regime/energy/).

  • WTI Real Price: FRED WTISPLC (monthly splice, 1946+) deflated by CPIAUCSL and rebased to 2015 dollars.
  • Henry Hub Natural Gas: FRED MHHNGSP (monthly, 1997+). Available for the Central Bank Era only.
  • US Retail Electricity Price: EIA ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A (annual, 1960+), forward-filled monthly.
  • Energy Consumption YoY: EIA TETCBUS total US consumption (monthly, 1973+) expressed as 12-month percentage change.
  • Oil/Gold Ratio: Nominal WTI / London AM gold fix โ€” rises in risk-on, commodity-driven regimes.
  • Oil/Gas Ratio: Real WTI / Henry Hub โ€” measures oil premium over natural gas; available for the Central Bank Era only.

Sector Performance

Fetched via /stable/historical-sector-performance for 11 GICS sectors. Cumulative returns computed from the start of the lookback window (Base = 100).

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